“The crisis has not ended yet, but we have to get ready for the post-crisis era. Great changes will take place for the whole world as well as China after the crisis” stated Wang Luolin, chairman of the forum, deputy director of China’s Academy of Social Science.
“What changes will the world go through in the post-crisis era?”
Mr. Ha Jiming, chief economist of China International Capital Corporation Ltd. (CICC) mentioned two turning points for the crisis, one of which will appear in America: the generation of the baby boom after WWII has reached the age to retirement and the number of working people has been declining.
“The turning point will appear next year, which means our export will also undergo a structural turning point. If the domestic demand is not expanded, the rate of GDP growth will maintain at 8%. The global economic may thus stay low in growth and high in inflation.”
The other turning point will appear in China: With the change of age structure, the advantages of age structure will gradually disappear, and have great impact on the asset price.”
Take housing as an example, the youth will have one house for his own, as well as two from his parents and grandparents respectively. The problem is to whom they can sell or rent their house. With the population aging, the process of urbanization will also be slowed down.”
Mr. Ha Jiming said that for the time being the trend of the real-estate market is still going upward, especially for the high-class houses in first-tier cities and low-class house in smaller cities. This turning point is probably to appear in the year 2015.
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